发信人: yunle (晕了晕了), 信区: Exam
标 题: 一篇很好的文章（E文）大家看看
发信站: 哈工大紫丁香 (Thu Nov 20 02:31:02 2003), 站内信件
title:God, man and growth
IF YOU want to avoid an argument over religion at your next dinner party, you
might suppose it safe to invite an economist or two. They, of all people, coul
d be expected to stick to Mammon. Or maybe not, if a new paper* by Robert Barr
o, one of America's best-known economists, and Rachel McCleary, a colleague at
Harvard University, is any guide. It explores the influence of religious beli
ef and observance on economic growth.
To be sure, this is not the first time that economists have held forth on subj
ects that many people consider private. Gary Becker, a Nobel laureate at the U
niversity of Chicago, is well known for applying economic theory to questions
such as whether marriage is economically efficient, whether drug addiction is
rational and how couples decide how many children to have. Mostly, though, eco
nomists have so far left religion alone. However, other students of society ha
ve not been shy of offering ideas about religion and wealth. A century ago, Ma
x Weber, a founder of sociology, observed that the Protestant work ethic was w
hat had made northern Europe and America rich. Recently, Niall Ferguson, a Bri
tish historian at New York University, argued that today's economic stagnation
in Germany and other European countries owes much to the decline of religious
belief and church attendance during the past four decades. The Protestant wor
k ethic, he thinks, is dead.
If there is a link between religion and economic performance, then economists
ought to have something to say about it. To test the connection, however, econ
omists need figures, ideally covering many countries and many years. This is w
here Mr Barro and Ms McCleary come in. They have collected data from surveys o
f religious belief for 59 countries in the 1980s and 1990s—whether people say
they believe in God, heaven and hell, and whether they attend services at lea
st once a month—and have tried to tease out whether these have any direct eff
ect on GDP growth.
This is not easy, because in theory the causal arrow could run either from rel
igion to economic growth or in the other direction. On the one hand, adherence
to religion might foster behaviour that helps a nation to become rich. The Pr
otestant ethic emphasised thrift and willingness to work hard. Honesty might g
enerate trust. Openness to strangers could lead to openness to trade and immig
ration. On the other hand, economic growth might bring about changes in a coun
try's religiosity. As European countries have become richer during this centur
y, fewer people have gone to church. In America, however, the downward trend h
as stopped, or even gone into reverse, in recent decades and Americans are far
more religious than Europeans. It is also thought that church attendance decl
ines as people become better educated and as they move from the country to the
city. Both these shifts tend to accompany economic growth.
In order to sort this out, the authors needed to find measures of religion whi
ch are not themselves affected by GDP growth. To do this, they draw on a funda
mental tenet of orthodox economic faith: that more competition is better. In s
ome countries, religion is (or was) banned altogether or discouraged. In other
s, a single strand is sponsored by the state. In others, there is a free-for-a
ll.
Earlier studies, say the authors, suggest that religion is more likely to flou
rish where there is less state control and a greater diversity of belief. So t
hey use this to test the impact of religion on growth. Up to a point, their fi
ndings corroborate some common perceptions. More prosperous countries seem to
have lower rates of church attendance, although America—the best instance of
a country of competing sects rather than a state religion—is a conspicuous ex
ception. More urbanised countries tend to be less religious. However, contrary
to what many people think, religion seems to have a stronger hold in countrie
s with better educated populations.
The general theory of fire and brimstone
The most striking conclusion, though, is that belief in the afterlife, heaven
and hell are good for economic growth. Of these, fear of hell is by far the mo
st powerful, but all three indicators have a bigger impact on economic perform
ance than merely turning up for church. The authors surmise, therefore, that r
eligion works via belief, not practice. A parish priest might tell you that si
mply going through the motions will bring you little benefit in the next world
. If Mr Barro and Ms McCleary are right, it does you little good in this one e
ither.
Indeed, Mr Barro and Ms McCleary go further. They find that church-going, afte
r a certain point, is (in an economic sense, anyway) a waste of time. They arg
ue that higher church attendance uses up time and resources, and eventually ru
ns into diminishing returns. The “religion sector”, as they call it, can con
sume more than it yields.
All this is intriguing, but does religion make much difference? Japan, where t
here are many sects but little fear of hell, has grown far faster since the se
cond world war than the Catholic Philippines. Officially atheist China is grow
ing at a cracking pace. Presumably, what your religion is matters as much as w
hether you are religious: has anyone theorised about a Catholic work ethic? An
d if religion does have an effect, is a 20-year period long enough to find it?
Equally, religious people would say that prosperity is not the purpose of fait
h. Few these days would even see it as a reward for their belief and behaviour
, but as at most a by-product, and then not necessarily a welcome one. Recall
Jesus's words about the rich man, a camel and the eye of a needle. So is Mr Ba
rro's and Ms McCleary's rough, preliminary research good news for the faithful
? Or is it just a little disconcerting?
--
好想进这个门
<img scr="hthttp://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/chn/xxjs/jdjs/img/eastgate_r4_c1.jpg">
※ 来源:．哈工大紫丁香 bbs.hit.edu.cn [FROM: 218.10.67.174]