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发信人: lyjun (大侠), 信区: Green
标 题: 外国人编的苏氏家族落户中国时间表
发信站: 哈工大紫丁香 (Sun Nov 3 10:25:35 2002) , 转信
"Timeline: SU deliveries to China and related events"
LAST EDITED ON 23-10-02 AT 02:09 PM (GMT)
This is a work in progress, so I'm still adding data and making corrections wh
en more data becomes available. The data is a collage of information from diff
erent sources.
A Timeline of Events
1991 Order of 24 SU-27SK and -UBK aircraft. All -SK aircraft are built by KnAA
PO, and all -UBK aircraft by IAPO. In addition to No. 25 and 26, No.1 and No.
2 are UBKs. The cost for the SK is approximately $32 million while the UBK is
about $35 million.
1992 June. Delivery of first batch, 8 SU-27SKs and 4 SU-27UBKs.
1992 November. Delivery of 12 SU-27SKs, plus two complementary SU-27UBKs for p
ilot and technician training (No. 25 and 26.)
1994 Second order made. 22 SU-27SK aircraft, 6 of which are SU-27UBK two seate
rs.
1995 Delivery of second order. There are two additional complementary aircraft
, marked No. 49 and No. 50. This makes a total of 50 aircraft in the first two
batches, confirmed by photograph of SU-27SK PLAAF serial number No. 49 and No
. 50. One report says a number of these aircraft may have Zhuk-27 radar for te
sting purposes. These aircraft could be No. 49 and No. 50. Unlike the first or
der, it now appears the second batch includes Sorbatsya ECM pods, presumably a
new version.
1996. License to manufacture 200 planes signed. The total cost of the license
was $2.5 billion, of which $600 million was for knocked down kits, technical d
ocumentation and training. Some reports say 150, others 250, even 300. Current
ly the most popular quoted number is 200. It should be noted there is no confi
rmation on the final number of the license. According Jane抯 and Chinese websi
te reports, this was said to be the -SMK variant. However, production turned o
ut to be the basic -SK variant, although Chinese websites and internet posters
continue to refer to the license as -SMK.. It may have been possible that Chi
na bought the SU-27 license at the SMK level for technological headroom for up
grades in the future. Provisions of this license include 70% maximum local con
tent, 30% minimum Russian content. Engines license is not granted and have to
be procured from Russia. No second export is not allowed. Any changes in the s
pecification or improvements must be notified to the Sukhoi bureau. If product
ion numbers are not attained, China can exercise an option for Russia to build
the SU-27s. China is now allowed/required to set up maintenance facilities fo
r the engines, where as previously it had to send the planes or engines to Rus
sia for overhaul.
1997 April. 14 SU-27s were seriously damaged in a typhoon. Three were irrepara
bly damaged. One report, needing verification, says that the aircraft was repl
aced for free, presumably from the Russians?own inventory, part of an expressi
on of good will between Russia and China.
1998. Two test planes assembled and flew for the first time over Shenyang. But
due to poor quality, had to be re-manufactured.
1999. July, a deal for 38 SU-30MKK was signed, with the approximate cost of ea
ch plane around $37 million. To be delivered in 2000-2001. Both SU-30MKK 501 a
nd 502 prototypes displayed multirole capability and support for various missi
les桼-77, R-27, R-73, Kh-31a, Kh-31p, Kh-59ME and Kh-29T. Many reports say the
deal is 40 aircraft (consistent to 38 ordered plus two free), but there are o
ther reports that contend it抯 45, and some even say 48.
1999 July. 28 SU-27UBK deal signed, with each plane about $35 million. All -UB
K orders are handled by IAPO, while -SK and -MKK orders are handled by KnAAPO.
Delivery began in December 2000, with serial numbers #51 and above, with the
completion of order in 2002. These aircraft featured an improved N001 variant
(N001V?) that can simultaneously engage two targets with R-77s..
2000 Shenyang Aircraft Corporation begins serial assembly of SU-27, a.k.a J-11
. 14 were presumably built by the end of the year. It is possible that these p
lanes may be equipped with a modernized N001 radar that enables R-77 compatibi
lity and simultaneous two target engagement.
2000 August. An SU-30MKK prototype was said to been handed ceremoniously over
to China. Some reports say it抯 ?02" but ?02" itself was reported handed over
to China in the November Zhuhai airshow. This could mean this prototype is ?01
" itself, as ?01" which used to make regular air show appearances, was already
absent by Zhuhai 2000 and MAKS2001.
2000 November. SU-30MKK Prototype ?02" was said to have been ceremoniously han
ded over at Zhuhai airshow.
2000 December. China receives the first 10 SU-30MKK from KnAAPO. These are equ
ipped with the N001VE radar. Simultaneously 8 of the third batch IAPO built SU
-27UBK with N001V were received and assigned to the Chengdu region.
2001 March. First weapons package for the SU-30MKK received, including Kh-31,
Kh-29 and Kh-59 missiles.
2001 April. CCTV showed an SU-30MKK firing an KH-59ME.
2001 July. China signs contract for the second order of SU-30MKK, presumably 3
8 aircraft. Reports vary from 38 or 40. It was originally believed that the de
liveries of this order was to begin on the end of 2003. Instead, delivery bega
n on August 2002 with the first ten planes and to be completed by early to mid
2003. Once again, two free planes are possible.
2001 August. 10 more of the SU-30MKK received for the first order, representin
g the second batch. MAKS2001 held in Russia showing a third SU-30MKK 損rototyp
e?called ?03", whose unfinished paint condition suggests a serial production S
U-30MKK on loan for publicity purposes as a replacement for ?01". ?03" first a
ppeared along side with 502 in publicity photographs. Note there is never a pi
cture of 501 and 503 together. The publicity pictures of 502 and 503 together
suggests they were taken between August and November of 2000. After the show,
presumably, 503 had its paint job completed and shipped as part of the 10 plan
e shipment in August or the 18 plane shipment in December. It is probable that
?03" may have been used to test the Zhuk-MS radar.
2001 August. Flight International revealed that the radar for the SU-30MKK wou
ld be changed to the Zhuk-MS in the third batch. The wording seemed confusing
as to 揵atch?is defined per delivery, or per order. If per delivery, this woul
d refer to the next 18 planes. If per order, this would mean the third order y
et unannounced at that time. Yet sources also collaborate on the radar change
after the 20th plane.
2001 December. The last 18 SU-30MKK received from the first order and could be
the first SU-30MKKs with the Zhuk-MS radar.
2001 Possibly a total of 20 J-11s were finished by the end of 2001.
.
2002 March. Annual spring exercises may have showed the most frequent and most
intensive use of the Flankers in exercises yet, including use of SU-30MKKs.
2002 May. CCTV held a celebration in honor of the Shenyang Aircraft Company ri
ght in TV. It appears to be a show celebrating not just SAC抯 anniversary, but
also for a job well done. This may imply satisfactory progress in meeting qua
lity and quota standards, probably for the J-11 program梩he show featured two
newly built SU-27s on stage. Other than a 揓-11A?mockup in a Shenyang display
stand the year before, this was the first time China acknowledged domestic con
struction of the SU-27, and the first time such planes were ever seen up close
. One report suggests that local content on the J-11 has reached as high as 60
%. With increasing domestic content, the flyaway cost of the plane as volume i
ncreases, is expected to drop.
2002 June. There was a report on an acceleration of production in SAC, XAC and
CAC plants with full 24 hour shifts. This suggests a major effort to increase
production rate for J-11. Prediction?0 aircraft built for the year 2002. With
increased domestic content and less reliance on components from former Soviet
republics, there should be less bottlenecks.
2002 July-August, China signs another contract for the third order of SU-30, n
ow SU-30MK2, presumably a new navalized variant for the airborne arm of the Ch
inese Navy, the PLANAF. Delivery, probably with two complementary aircraft, wa
s to commence in 2003. Reports differ from 28, to 38 or 40 aircraft. Reports a
lso say Kh-31a capability and Zhuk radar, although such news seem belated as s
uch capability already exists with previous aircraft. If following previous pa
tterns of orders, this may be for 38 aircraft, with two possible additional gi
ft/evaluation planes.
2002 July-August. First reported test of R-77s fired from SU-30MKKs, even thou
gh R-77 purchase was first reported in 2000.
2002 August. The first 10 of the second batch of SU-30MKK delivered, assumably
based on Series 2.
2002 September, the last 6 SU-27UBK of the third batch is expected to be deliv
ered by IAPO. Two free aircraft may have been included with the deliveries (fo
r a total of 30.)
2002 October. All weapons of the SU-30MKK were successfully fired and tested.
2002 November. Zhuhai air show. Putin will visit China later in the month, and
procuring more arms sales are probably part of the agenda.
2002 December. Possible delivery of 10 more SU-30MKKs.
2003 (All Year) Delivery of second SU-30MKK expected to be completed and third
order delivery to begin, ending in 2004. Local production of J-11/SU-27SK may
end on the 80th aircraft, which can occur sometime in the year, giving way to
a more advanced variant. Some reports presumed it may be SU-30MKK (J-11B? JH-
11?), others an improved single seater variant (J-11A?) with SD-10 compatibili
ty, multirole and midflight refueling capability. Reports suggest SU-30MKK lic
ense could entail as much as 250 aircraft.
Notes on weapons and complementary purchases:
R-73 Possibly over 3200 of these have been delivered.
R-27 144 R-27R/Ts were ordered in 1991 and delivered the year after. 144 R-27E
T/ERs ordered in 1994 and delivered the year after. A long term deal was signe
d with 1860 R-27R/Ts and 1860 R-27ER/ETs on 1995. By 2001, 600 R-27R/Ts and 60
0 R-27ER/ETs were delivered. Presumably, the deliveries had stopped.
R-77 100 R-77s were ordered in 2000 and presumably received in 2001. There was
another report for 400 missiles but cannot be verified---the 100 R-77s could
be the first batch of a much larger order. The low numbers suggest a try out p
hase, or simply a stop gap to the PL-12/SD-10.
Kh-31 Both -a and -p versions were said to have been licensed for production i
n China as YJ-91. Used also for JH-7A.
Kh-29T Ordered and tested but no verifiable quantities known. Total requiremen
ts may be as high as 2000 missiles.
KH-29L China is also said to have bought this, but the user of this missile is
not likely to be any of the Flankers. Probably for JH-7A or Q-5E instead.
KAB-500kr Probably licensed.
KAB-500L Laser guided. Probably licensed but Flankers are not the end users of
this weapon in the PLAAF. Probably for JH-7A instead.
KH-59ME Ordered and tested.
Kh-35 Order for air launched versions signed in deal signed around October 200
1. This order may have be as a result of the failure to integrate the C801K to
the SU-30MKK.
Sokol Armstrade also reported the sale and shipment of 20 sets of Sokol radar
sometime in 2001, presumably for the J-10, but another report saying it抯 for
the JH-7A. This indicates the unsureness of the final destination of the radar
s. As the radar seems fairly hefty for the J-10 and JH-7A, one cannot rule out
possibility that these may be used in some upgraded SU-30MKKs for testing and
evaluation purposes.
C-801K Attempts to integrate this antiship missile on the SU-30MKK so far has
been a failure.
C-802K Integration attempts still unknown but this missile should be high in t
he priority list.
PL-12 Also known as the SD-10, this missile appears to be a Chinese-Russian jo
int venture with the R-77 seeker mated to a PL-11 body. Combining Russian and
Chinese technologies may be an attempt to create a uniform standard missile th
at can be used on both Russian and Chinese made aircraft. The deployment of th
is missile is strategically important for the PLA, and emphasis may be made on
the next variant of the J-11 to be compatible with this missile.
PL-5/8/9 Standard IR AAMs of the PLAAF. While no SU-27/30 has been seen carryi
ng these missiles, compatibility is possible as demonstrated by the F-8IIM pro
totype, where these missiles were slaved to a Russian made Zhuk radar.
A50U Since the Phalcon deal was aborted, the PLAAF has ordered the A50U instea
d. It is felt however that the Russian systems are inferior to the Israeli Pha
lcon, a reason why India is also acquiring the Israeli system. Yet any AWACS a
re better than nothing. Four aircraft were ordered, presumably at a price of $
200 million each, with the first deliveries in 2002. A domestic AWACS is also
rumored to be under development.
IL-76 The PRC has began negotiations to purchase as many as 40 IL-76 tankers,
perhaps with an initial order of 6 to 7. Previously the PLAAF used H-6 as thei
r tankers. The large number of tankers may indicate that a large fleet of airc
raft with midair refueling is being projected.
Others Various cruise missiles. A 揧J-12", a supersonic ramjet missile appeare
d in mockup form in a JH-7 display and could be planned as the standard land a
nd ship attack cruise missile for the PLAAF and PLANAF. JDW also mentioned the
likelihood of Flankers to be launching indigenous land attack cruise missiles
.
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